Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
